The last year’s Azimio La Umoja Convention at Kasarani International Sports Centre in Nairobi on December 10 appears to have sent political chills down the spines of leading presidential contenders in this country.
The Convention by political maestro, Raila Amolo Odinga set the pace and bar for other presidential contenders to beat.
It appears all presidential contenders must do everything possible to demonstrate their popularity by attracting huge and bigger crowds than the Raila’s audience at Kasarani.
Raila’s choice of neutral Nairobi was deliberate.
This is because the capital city is the melting pot of all ethnic groups in this country and any presidential candidate who wins Nairobi’s heart is a heartbeat away from the presidency.
The selection of Kasarani stadium was also strategic because presidential candidates must be sure to fill the 60,000-capacity stadium with sizeable numbers lest they get politically embarrassed.
Apologists for Raila’s opponents argue that the mammoth crowd at Kasarani Convention were largely transported from outside Nairobi in vain.
This is the same narrative that happened when social media was awash with photos of school buses ferrying people to Eldoret Sports Club, whereby Deputy President, Dr William Ruto was hosting a statement rally.
Ruto’s rally was arguably in reaction to Raila’s convention.
Apparently, after realising he cannot marshal a similar or bigger audience than Raila in Nairobi, Ruto and his political strategists opted to host the endorsement rally at his political hometown.
Speakers at Ruto’s meeting, especially Uasin-Gishu Woman Representative Gladys Shollei were at pains to draw attention to the presence of MPs from various parts of the country to prove that the Eldoret meeting was national in attendance.
For a presidential contender who claims a national appeal among Kenyans, hosting such a politically significant endorsement meeting at his home county was a terrible mistake.
This is because Raila’s Kasarani Sports Centre and Ruto’s Eldoret Sports Club political meetings have left lasting impressions in the minds of voters.
Tellingly, Raila choose the larger Kasarani venue away from Luo Nyanza, while Ruto held his at the smaller Eldoret venue within his community.
Presidential races have turned into optics, whereby the size of crowds is important to create perceptions about a candidate’s popularity.
After Kasarani Azimio Convention, the template changed and presidential contenders must prove they have followers in millions.
During the 2017 presidential election, the smaller Uhuru Park became a contested venue when both NASA and Jubilee Party coalitions fought over who should host their last campaign rally at the venue.
Jubilee Party, which had state power had its way and photos that were splashed in mainstream and social media spoke a thousand words.
Did Ruto error by hosting such an important endorsement rally in his hometown?
Politically speaking, unless Ruto follows up the Eldoret meeting with similar rallies in other regions, foremost in Nairobi and away from traffic-stopping venues, it will be difficult for him to avoid being labeled as a tribal kingpin masquerading as a national leader.
Those rallies must also attract huge audiences similar to Eldoret, lest he creates a perception that he has less national following than his erstwhile political opponent, Raila Odinga.
The same must apply to all other presidential contenders, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetangula and the rest.
For the above it doesn’t matter much because the presidential race is shaping up as a two-horse competition between Raila and Ruto.
Everything said and done, the battle of crowds has started in earnest and strong coalitions will be dependent on among others, crowds factor and so will be the fates of leading presidential contenders.
Kaunda wa Muchunku
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